#RoadToTheShow: 1A-Region 1 Preview

1A-Region 1 preview

When & where: Bolles School, Jacksonville. First session is set for noon Friday. Saturday’s first session is set for 10 a.m., finals should begin between 4-5 p.m., after an hour’s break following the consi semis.
Team favorite/local outlook: Clay should be the solid favorite to win its third consecutive region title on Saturday afternoon. Even losing two starters last week didn’t slow the Blue Devils down, as they essentially had the District 3 title wrapped up well before the final round. As to who will be the primary chasers, look at teams like Wakulla, Florida High and Bishop Kenny as teams that should finish somewhere in the top five Saturday evening (I would think Wakulla will be second; third and fourth could be a tossup). What team could finish fifth? Look at a Suwannee. Look at a South Walton. Look at a Bay. Perhaps a Yulee. Teams with individual firepower will do well in this event. It should be a lot of fun to see it all sort itself out.

This preview will be somewhat different from the first two we did earlier this week since, for me, every kid in this tournament is local. We’ll break down each quadrant for all of the weight classes. You’ll actually see each pick at each round, with a quick comment on the round.

The key thing to remember: It’s not personal. Prove me wrong. Or prove me right. I like either one. I’m not telling which one is better. You’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.

Matmen’s state qualifier predictions, sure to be wrong —

106: 1. Xander Kirkland (Suwannee). 2. Dawson Bevens (Mosley). 3. Nicholas Hejke (Bozeman). 4. Emil Ganim (Florida High).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Jeremy Mahoney (Fernandina Beach).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Tristan Martinez (Yulee), Luke Boccuzzo (FSDB).
First-round match worth price of admission: Jacob Witt (Bolles) v. Jackson Merrick (Wakulla).
My too-short take: Kirkland has won tournaments at the highest levels of 1A (Clay Rotary). Bevens will be tested by Ganim in the semi, but should get through on the top half. The Ganim/Mahoney quarterfinal should determine a placewinner.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Bevens moves on through, with a win over Merrick in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Ganim moves on through, with a win over Mahoney in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Kirkland moves on through, with a win over Martinez in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Hejke moves on through, with a win over Boccuzzo in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Witt, Jaime Balmeceda (Bay), Colin Dutton (Rutherford), Wesley Carlisle (West Nassau). All look straightforward enough.
Consi round 2 projected: Boccuzzo, Martinez, Mahoney, Merrick. I’ll be curious about the Mahoney/Dutton Friday-nighter.
Consi quarters projected: Martinez, Mahoney. Merrick could be a tough out in the bottom half of these.
Semis/Consi semis: Both semis should be great matches, although I think Kirkland — having beaten a Springstead wrestler on a big stage in the final at Clay — will have more separation in his semi. The western kids in the consi semis will have more offense than the Nassau kids can counter, I think. Hejke decisioned Ganim way back in week 1.

113: 1. Daniel Porter (Clay). 2. Brooks Dyer (Florida High). 3. Kyle Hopkins (Episcopal). 4. Timothy Jolicoeur (Suwannee).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Neal Smith (Marianna), Robert Iglesias (Pedro Menendez), Trevor Gladson (Yulee).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Cameron Bevens (Mosley).
First-round match worth price of admission: Iglesias v. Jeffrey Prosser (Bishop Snyder).
My too-short take: Top two kids in the weight class are in the bottom half of the bracket and will meet in the semis. I would expect the Porter/Hopkins winner to take the title. Dyer’s path to the final is considerably clearer.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Smith moves on through, with a win over Gladson in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Dyer moves on through, with a win over Iglesias in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Porter moves on through, with a win over Bevens in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Hopkins moves on through, with a win over Jolicoeur in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Reilly Gentges (Bishop Kenny), Prosser, Raymond Hatchman (Wakulla), Will Ashby (Arnold). Prosser vs. Shaun Dubroca of Rutherford should be a good match to watch.
Consi round 2 projected: Jolicoeur, Bevens, Iglesias, Gladson. Bevens vs. Prosser will be a good Friday-nighter.
Consi quarters projected: Jolicoeur, Iglesias. Jolicoeur has a win in hand in the top half, Iglesias’ experience too much in the bottom.
Semis/Consi semis: Dyer should be able to move through in the top-half; I have Porter projected to repeat his Clay Rotary win, but I would not be surprised if the tables turned. What I do know is it should be a great match between two placer-level wrestlers. Jolicoeur also has a win in hand in the top half consi semi, whoever comes out of the bottom half semi over to the bottom half consi semi is going to be on a mission.

120: 1. Stevie Chopek (Clay). 2. Jack Delaney (Bishop Kenny). 3. Douglas Hanson (Bozeman). 4. Matthew Owen (Wakulla).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Tyler Reeve (Florida High); Jordan Ware (Suwannee); Bryce Bees (Yulee).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Jaden Moseley (Wewahitchka); Chase Dubroca (Rutherford).
First-round match worth price of admission: Ware v. Bees.
My too-short take: Chopek and Delaney are the clear class of the field, Hanson’s road makes him a solid choice for third. Could be a great District 2 faceoff in the blood round for fourth spot.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Hanson moves on through, with a win over Reeve in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Delaney moves on through, with a win over Ware in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Owen moves on through, with a win over Moseley in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Chopek moves on through, with a win over Dubroca in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Brendan Ferenchik (West Nassau), Bees, Seth Britton (Westside), Dalton Posick (Bolles). All of the Friday afternoon matches look straightforward.
Consi round 2 projected: Dubroca, Bees, Ware, Reeve. The Bees/Moseley matchup could be a battle; so could Ware/Moseley, depending on the outcome of that first-rounder noted above.
Consi quarters projected: Bees, Reeve. In both halves of this round, just too much firepower for the advancers.
Semis/Consi semis: Both of the semifinals have some interesting components to them, but the finalists — both with state experience — should be able to use that experience to their advantage and move on through. In the top half consi, it could be a good battle, but Hanson’s experience will be key (Bees will be in the mix in the next two years). I expect all-out war in the bottom half between Owen and Reeve. While Owen has the more recent win, both have beaten the other this year.

126: 1. Ethan Pickren (South Walton). 2. Cale Hoskinson (Clay). 3. Chase Clark (Suwannee). 4. Jake Blount (West Nassau).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): JP Villanueva (Bishop Snyder).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Jonathan Harvey (Wewahitchka), Dennis Ganim (Florida High), Jack Donghit (Bishop Kenny).
First-round match worth price of admission: Ganim v. Griffin Hebert (Arnold).
My too-short take: Pickren is too strong for the rest of the group, but Hoskinson is the class of the bottom half. Blood-round matches could be pretty epic in this one.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Pickren moves on through, with a win over Blount in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Clark moves on through, with a win over Villanueva in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Hoskinson moves on through, with a win over Harvey in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Ganim moves on through, with a win over Donghit in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Jarrett Ellis (Pedro Menendez), Brian Zerr (Bozeman), Aaron Kinsey (Wakulla), Hebert. Zerr vs. James Smith of Bradford could be intriguing.
Consi round 2 projected: Donghit, Harvey, Villanueva, Blount. Harvey and Zerr didn’t meet at districts; this could be intriguing as well.
Consi quarters projected: Harvey, Blount. Harvey vs. Donghit, in particular, will be a great match in the top half. That one could go either way.
Semis/Consi semis: Pickren and Hoskinson will have the advantages in their respective semifinal rounds, but the quality of their opponents will make for two hellacious blood-rounders. Clark will be too strong for Harvey, and Blount has more firepower than Ganim, but Ganim is very consistent.

132: 1. Seth Weinthal (South Walton). 2. Jordan Johnson (Baker County). 3. Nic Timmons (Florida High). 4. Aaron Curry (Bay).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Charlie Owens (Wakulla), Bradley Hulett (West Nassau), Garrett Tirado (Bishop Kenny), Gabe Peddichord (Clay).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): None.
First-round matches worth price of admission: Owens v. Peddichord (any Clay/Wakulla match this early should draw attention), Hulett v. Caleb Parsons (Suwannee).
My too-short take: Weinthal is the class of the top half, Johnson the class of the bottom half. The Curry/Timmons quarter should determine not just a semifinalist, but the upper hand in who takes third/fourth.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Weinthal moves through, with a win over Peddichord in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Tirado moves through, with a win over Hulett in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Timmons moves through, with a win over Curry in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Johnson moves through with a win over Marianna’s Trenton Faust in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Owens, Parsons, Orion Duffy (Yulee), DeAndre Jones (Pedro Menendez). Best match in the group should be Parsons against Bozeman’s Wylie DeBarr.
Consi round 2 projected: Owens, Curry, Hulett, Peddichord. Curry/Parsons and Hulett/Duffy will be highlights on Friday night.
Consi quarters projected: Curry, Hulett. Curry vs. Owens will be a battle. Team points on the line, plus a great matchup. Hulett has a win in hand over Peddichord at the District 3 semis.
Semis/Consi semis: Both Weinthal and Johnson will bring too much pressure against their opponents in the semis, I should think. Curry against Tirado will match up two seniors in the blood round, which I always hate. It has the possibility to go either way. Timmons should have the upper hand in the bottom half consi semi.

138: 1. Peyton Hughes (Clay). 2. Max Metcalf (Florida High). 3. Micah Lanier (Wakulla). 4. Dylan Haman (South Walton).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Reid Hampton (Episcopal), Marquez Chavez (Bolles).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Tim Messick (Bay), Connor Spossey (Pedro Menendez).
First-round match worth price of admission: Hampton v. Caleb Wood (Suwannee).
My too-short take: Hughes may not have one-sided wins in every round, but he should control the pace in every round. Metcalf has the upper hand over Spossey in the bottom half. The bottom-half consi-semi between Lanier and Spossey has the makings of a good one.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Haman moves through, with a win over Hampton in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Hughes moves through, with a win over Lanier in the quarterfinal (one of best matches of Friday-evening round).
Third quarter: Metcalf moves through, with a win over Baker County’s Devon Cole in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Spossey moves through, with a win over Messick in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Wood, Chavez, Logan Gall (Mosley), Logan Blaise (Yulee).
Consi round 2 projected: Messick, Chavez, Lanier, Hampton. Chavez and Cole could be a good wrapup to the weight class Friday night.
Consi quarters projected: Messick, Lanier. Tough out for Hampton; were he in the top half, might survive to blood round.
Semis/Consi semis: Hughes and Metcalf should both move through. Experience will be key in Metcalf’s case, but we’ll see a lot more of Spossey in future seasons. That could also be the advantage for Lanier in the blood round bottom half. In the top half, Haman should have the clear advantage.

145: 1. Andrew Slade (Bishop Kenny). 2. Keivontie Logan (Rutherford). 3. KJ Fagan (Bolles). 4. Ethan Ellis (Marianna).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Collin Tanner (Pedro Menendez), James Knabb (Baker County).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Chase Roberts (Wakulla), Chase Maddox (South Walton).
First-round match worth price of admission: Ellis v. Knabb. Ellis was sick at districts last week, but is at least the second-best 145 in District 1, if not outright best.
My too-short take: Should be a District 1 top half, if my first-impression bracket holds up; Slade will be the class of the bottom half. Will be good to get my first long look at Logan this year.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Logan moves through, with a win over Fagan in the quarterfinal (great quarter here).
Second quarter: Ellis moves through, with a win over Tanner in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Roberts moves through, with a win over Bay’s Kyle Roper in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Slade moves through, with a win over Maddox in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Jaxon Sansouci (Suwannee), Knabb, De’Von Worthen (Yulee), Johnathan Bokros (Bishop Snyder). These all look pretty straightforward.
Consi round 2 projected: Maddox, Knabb, Tanner, Fagan. In this round, it’s a pretty straightforward group.
Consi quarters projected: Knabb, Fagan. Knabb’s speed will be tough to handle, Fagan has a win in hand from last week.
Semis/Consi semis: I could see a hotly-contested semi in the top half between Logan and Ellis; Slade will have an easier route in the bottom half. Knabb could make things hard on Ellis if wind isn’t back, but technique and experience favor Ellis. Fagan will be too much in the bottom half consi semi.

152: 1. Drew St Amant (Arnold). 2. Dylan Taylor (Clay). 3. Terrell Williams (Suwannee). 4. Joey Cusick (Bishop Kenny).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Noah Wilson (Wakulla); Requan Works (West Nassau); Noah Perdue (Florida High).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Garrison Kovacs (Mosley).
First-round matches worth price of admission: Wilson v. Angelo Philpot (Westside); Perdue v. Works.
My too-short take: St Amant and Taylor are the class of the field. They didn’t meet at Clay Rotary, where St Amant was second and Taylor third. Williams has a leg up on the rest of the group.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: St Amant moves through, with a win over Wilson in the quarterfinal (solid match there).
Second quarter: Cusick moves through, with a win over Works in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Williams moves through, with a win over Marianna’s John Maddox in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Taylor moves through, with a win over Kovacs in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Philpot, Perdue, Tyler Berrier (Yulee), Cameron Frison (Wolfson). Berrier vs. Sean Jones of Pedro Menendez could be a good match.
Consi round 2 projected: Kovacs, Perdue, Works, Wilson. Best match could be Kovacs against Philpot on Friday night.
Consi quarters projected: Kovacs, Wilson. The Wilson-Works matchup feels more like a blood-rounder.
Semis/Consi semis: St Amant and Taylor, in their respective halves, should be able to establish their attacks in the semifinals. I expect Cusick to move through in the top half consi, but that bottom-half one would be a District 2 finals rematch, and should be all-out war.

160: 1. Alonzo Davis (Raines). 2. Connor Green (Clay). 3. Logan Montemurro (Bradford). 4. John Jones (Westside).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Jarred Pitts (Mosley); Julian Borrell (Suwannee).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Sam Buatu (Arnold), Gunnar Nebel (South Walton).
First-round match worth price of admission: Nebel v. Syre Ganim (Florida High).
My too-short take: Should be a reprise of the District 3 final, which just about blew the Westside High roof off last weekend. Could be three kids coming out of that district.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Green moves through, with a win over Pitts in the quarterfinal (could be a good match).
Second quarter: Jones moves through, with a win over Borrell in the quarterfinal (another good possibility).
Third quarter: Davis moves through, with a win over Buatu in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Montemurro moves through, with a win over Nebel in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: David Soule (Pedro Menendez, Ryan Bell (Bishop Kenny), Cole Baggett (Wakulla), Ganim. Bell vs. Bozeman’s Chase Wyzard could be a tossup.
Consi round 2 projected: Nebel, Buatu, Borrell, Pitts. All of these look pretty straightforward.
Consi quarters projected: Buatu, Pitts. Pitts v. Borrell, a former state qualifier, could feel like a blood-rounder.
Semis/Consi semis: I think Green will have too much offense in the top half semi, and the same would be true for Davis in the bottom half. Conversely, Jones may be too strong in the top half consi semi. Could be a great match in the bottom half; Montemurro has a win in hand from earlier in the season at Yulee.

170: 1. Harris Barton (South Walton). 2. Trevor Hart (Wakulla). 3. Carson Yost (Clay). 4. Jesse Burch (Bradford).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): CJ Grimes (Bolles).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): James Barnett (Baker County); Breyer Wood (West Nassau); Corey Davis (Marianna).
First-round match worth price of admission: Jimmy Citrano (Bishop Kenny) v. Blaine Howard (Suwannee); Wood v. Davis.
My too-short take: This is one of the more open weight classes in the tournament; any one of at least three kids could win it. Hart’s path to the finals appears the cleanest, at least in my first-impression bracket.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Barton moves through, with a win over Grimes in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Yost moves through, with a win over Citrano in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Hart moves through, with a win over Davis in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Burch moves through, with a win over Barnett in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Pedro Velez (Bishop Snyder), Howard, Wood, Caleb Ward (Bozeman). All of these look pretty straightforward.
Consi round 2 projected: Barnett, Davis, Wood, Grimes. Wood vs. Citrano should be a good Friday-night matchup.
Consi quarters projected: Barnett, Grimes. Both could be close, both could go the other way.
Semis/Consi semis: I expect a real tossup of a semifinal in the top half, where either wrestler could make enough breaks to move on out. I think Wakulla’s schedule will give Hart a little bit of experience advantage in bigger situations, and he should move through. I look for the losing semifinalist in the top half of the blood round to have too much consistency to not move through; similarly, the bottom half losing semifinalist should have the upper hand.

182: 1. Will Haigler (Florida High). 2. Andrew Annand (Wakulla). 3. Calvin Altman (Westside). 4. Abbott Taylor (Clay).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Andrew Luzny (Bay).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Nick Beenen (Bishop Kenny), Thomas Graden (Bishop Snyder).
My too-short take: We should see a District 2 rematch in the finals. Two great Friday-evening quarterfinals could shape the way Saturday goes in this weight class. Might be a District 3 rematch in the third-place match.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Luzny moves through, with a win over Bolles’ Ethan Asbury in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Annand moves through, with a win over Altman in the quarterfinal (great match; Annand won 6-5 in quarters last year).
Third quarter: Haigler moves through, with a win over Taylor in the quarterfinal (another great match).
Bottom quarter: Beenen moves through, with a win over Graden in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Nathan Manning (Fernandina Beach); D’ontae Newton (Rutherford); Jonah Mercer (Marianna), Mason Levasseur (South Walton). All look pretty straightforward.
Consi round 2 projected: Graden, Taylor, Altman, Asbury. Taylor against Newton could be interesting.
Consi quarters projected: Taylor, Altman. Both should be in control in this round.
Semis/Consi semis: Both Haigler and Annand should be comfortable in their semifinal rounds. Taylor might be a bit too much for Luzny in the top half consi semi; same goes for Altman against Beenen in the bottom half. Those middle two quarters are making life difficult for kids that are in the top and bottom ones.

195: 1. Kurt Jackson (Clay). 2. Cole Maddox (Marianna). 3. Garrett Hester (North Bay Haven). 4. Malachi Davenport (Wewahitchka).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): John Trevor Hinsey (Wakulla).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): DeJay Robinson (Florida High), JaTyren Walker (Godby), Austyn Holsomback (Pedro Menendez).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Robinson v. Hester, Walker v. Davenport.
My too-short take: Should be a reprise of Clay Rotary final in this event; District 1 could have a heavy presence at states if prior results are repeated. I think District 2 may have something to say about that.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Maddox moves through, with a win over Raines’ Jevonte Hagan in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Hinsey moves through, with a win over Yulee’s Michael Crawford in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Jackson moves through, with a win over Hester in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Davenport moves through, with a win over Holsomback in the quarterfinal (in a solid quadrant).
Consi round 1 projected winners: David Adewale (Bolles), Connor Sidman (Bishop Kenny), Robinson, Walker. Walker against Baker County’s Josh Ossmann might be the better of the two contested matches.
Consi round 2 projected: Holsomback, Hester, Robinson, Walker. Walker vs. Hagan could be a great match.
Consi quarters projected: Hester, Robinson. Hester will have a tough challenge with Holsomback to start the day Saturday; we’ll get to see a healthy Robinson in this one in the bottom half. Could still be 50-50 with Walker, though.
Semis/Consi semis: Maddox’s road to the final is tougher, but he should have enough for the win. Jackson should be in control in the bottom half. Last year, Hester pinned Hinsey in the quarterfinals, and that result may hold up this year in the top-half consi semi (but it should be a war). I think Davenport — a returning state qualifier — should have enough to move on out of the bottom half.

220: 1. Chayton Bussey (Wakulla). 2. Mason Yost (Bolles). 3. Brandon Jackson (Bay). 4. Casey Peppers (Arnold).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): John Alexander (Bishop Kenny); Joe Grelli (Clay).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Blake Dicks (Baker County); Ryan Kirby (Godby).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Alexander v. Bradley Durrance (Yulee).
My too-short take: Kind of an open bracket; any one of around seven kids or so, with an inspired weekend, could win the championship.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Jackson moves through, with a win over Grelli in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Bussey moves through, with a win over Alexander in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Peppers moves through, with a win over Dicks in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Yost moves through, with a win over Kirby in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Nick Rose (Pedro Menendez), Durrance, Elton Rumph (Rutherford).
Consi round 2 projected: Kirby, Dicks, Alexander, Grelli. Grelli against Rumph could be interesting in closing out the night.
Consi quarters projected: Dicks, Alexander. Dicks’ road could be tougher, as Kirby is a very solid competitor.
Semis/Consi semis: Bussey could be pushed by Jackson in the semi, but I have him moving through. Same with Yost, defending his home mat in the bottom half. While I wouldn’t be surprised by anything I see in the blood round, and no matter who wins I expect two solidly-contested matches, I think the District 1 kids have enough to move on and qualify.

285: 1. Josiah McCallum (Bishop Kenny). 2. Darius Wilkins (Wakulla). 3. McKenzie Lewis (Yulee). 4. Keethan Seay (Wolfson).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Justin Pippin (Bay), Ryan Rivers (Clay), Jamon Goodwine (Raines); Javon Solomon (Godby).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): None.
First-round match worth the price of admission: Goodwine v. Billy Duchaj (Suwannee); Rivers v. J. Salomon.
My too-short take: The titans of 1A to meet in the final, and they’re likely to repeat that next week in Kissimmee. The 3-6 positions? Very much in play.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Pippin moves through, with a win over Goodwine in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: McCallum moves through, with a win over Rivers in the quarterfinal.
Third quarter: Wilkins moves through, with a win over Rutherford’s Jonathan Heller in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Lewis moves through, with a win over Seay in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Duchaj, J. Solomon, Ray Bolden (Westside), Logan Stinson (Florida High). Stinson vs. Jason Rudd of Marianna could be an intriguing pairing.
Consi round 2 projected: Seay, J. Solomon, Rivers, Goodwine. The top half consis should have better matches, particularly Solomon against Heller.
Consi quarters projected: Seay, Rivers. Both of the winners should be at least somewhat comfortable, although Rivers and Goodwine didn’t wrestle last week.
Semis/Consi semis: McCallum and Wilkins should be at least solidly favored to move on in each of their semifinal rounds. The top half consi semi looks like a real tossup. Seay’s better than most runnerups, but has he had the competition? Pippin has some resume, but has seen a lot of time at 220. Has potential for tossup. As for the bottom half, Lewis and Rivers met last year in the blood round at Clay. They met last week in the District 3 final. Both times, the outcome was the same.

Brackets for this tournament can be found here.

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Posted in Uncategorized

Here’s A Story

Not often that high school wrestling cracks ESPN.com. Check it out:

http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/22532373/marjory-stoneman-douglas-wrestlers-remember-chris-hixon-competing-memory

Our final preview is now coded up and in the hopper, ready to go for a 6 a.m. publish time on Friday. I’ve got an ambitious evening planned (church small group AND gym), but I might noodle around with some record-keeping later today and tonight.

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Update

All brackets for Class 3A are now on the site, with the addition of 3A-District 12 just. All region pairings for Class 3A are now on the site as well.

The goal for tomorrow — after the 1A-Region 1 preview posts at 0600 — is to arrive at Bolles around 12:30, get set up and begin “live-tweeting” as soon as everything is up and running. I may semi-livetweet 2A and 3A as things develop.

Posted in Uncategorized

#RoadToTheShow: 2A-Region 1 Preview

2A-Region 1 preview

When & where: Chiles HS, Tallahassee (Lincoln & Chiles serve as co-hosts). First session is set for noon Friday (as all are in all classes statewide). Saturday’s first session is set for 10 a.m., finals in this particular instance are set for 6 p.m. per the FHSAA website; however, tournament director Mike Crowder has advised in email to Matmen Wednesday morning that finals will begin around 30 minutes after the conclusion of the consolation semis.
Team favorite/local outlook: Difficult to say. This has been an even competition in the past couple of seasons, and this year might be even tighter. Who’s coming in on an up note? Only Lincoln is a defending district champion; the other three (Gulf Breeze, Ridgeview and Matanzas) had not won for at least two years back, Gulf Breeze and Ridgeview significantly further back. Regions can help teams with firepower, so don’t count teams like Niceville, Columbia, Middleburg, Tate or Nease out. In all, I’d expect a good 12-team battle royal for the title. Right now, I’m going to ever…so…slightly…as of right this second…lean toward Lincoln with the slimmest of margins.

This preview and the 1A-Region 1 preview will be somewhat different than the first two since, for me, every kid in this tournament is local. We’ll break down each quadrant for all of the weight classes. You’ll actually see each pick at each round, with a quick comment on the round.

The key thing to remember: It’s not personal. Prove me wrong. Or prove me right. I like either one. I’m not telling which one is better. You’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.

Matmen’s state qualifier predictions, sure to be wrong —

106: 1. Matthew Rodriquez (Ridgeview). 2. Ian Daily (Gulf Breeze). 3. Noah Kryfka (Crestview). 4. Tazz Hampton (Middleburg).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Trevion Demus (Nease).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Shaun Culbreth (Matanzas).
First-round match worth price of admission: Daily v. Bruce Harting (Ed White).
My too-short take: Rodriquez should get through to the final, with a test from Kryfka in the semi. The Daily/Culbreth quarterfinal should determine a finalist, and observers could (and have) disagreed on how this one might go. I’m not even 100% myself.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: I’m looking for Kryfka to get through to the semis, but he’ll get a push from Demus in the quarter.
Second quarter: Rodriquez should move through without too much trouble. First-rounder between Kai Pelleriti (Creekside) and Brett Millard (Columbia) could be a good one.
Third quarter: Hampton should make the semis, with a win in the quarter over Lincoln’s Adam Barnes.
Bottom quarter: Best of the group. Daily/Culbreth will be a war, and don’t count out Harting in that first-rounder.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Cameron Courtenay (Englewood), Millard, Weston Burbidge (Ft Walton Beach), Harting. Millard vs. Giovani Gonzalez (Choctaw) should be the best match.
Consi round 2 projected: Culbreth, Millard, Pelleriti, Demus. Tough out for Harting, facing Demus this early.
Consi quarters projected: Culbreth, Demus. Both of these should be pretty straightforward.
Semis/Consi semis: I’d expect Rodriquez to come back out fresh in the top semi and push through. In the bottom half, Hampton may give his opponent (my first-impression bracket is Daily) real issues. He finds a level in the post-season. Will be a battle. As for the consis, Hampton might have too much length and strength in the bottom half. The top half, I would certainly not be surprised to see this go the other way. A very good kid is going to be left home.

113: 1. Jacob Cochran (Tate). 2. Gabe Guzman (Ridgeview). 3. Mark Munroe (Lincoln). 4. Brenden Teaman (Nease).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): James Benton (Middleburg); Davon Bailey (Orange Park); Ethan Goodman (Matanzas).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): None.
First-round match worth the price of admission: Bailey v. Goodman.
My too-short take: Top half of bracket is very strong, but Cochran will run through it. I look for the district champs to come through in the bottom half.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Cochran will have no issues on Friday, moving past Benton in the quarter.
Second quarter: Munroe, who is probably my pick for next-most capable after Cochran, should move past whoever survives the Bailey/Goodman war.
Third quarter: Guzman to make the semis, could be tested by Ft Walton Beach’s Brandon Mallin Friday evening.
Bottom quarter: Teaman should come through OK, Pace’s Derrick Lancero is another one capable of solid performance in the quarter.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Hunter England (Creekside), Bailey, Trevor Tagarelli (Bartram Trail), Nathan Fox (Gainesville). Best match probably Bailey against Choctaw’s David Tambula.
Consi round 2 projected: Lancero, Bailey, Goodman, Benton. Should be at least two very good matches contested Friday night.
Consi quarters projected: Bailey, Goodman. Bailey’s got the chops to get to the blood round; Goodman went 6-2 with Hampton, and Hampton is one of the Broncos’ best lowers.
Semis/Consi semis: Cochran will continue to control the bracket; I could see a good battle between Guzman and Teaman in the bottom half. I’m concerned about the comparative lack of matches, but Teaman is a senior. Munroe should move through against Bailey in the top half consi, Teaman has at least two wins over Goodman going into the bottom half.

120: 1. Zachary Hartzog (Niceville). 2. Michael Crowder (Lincoln). 3. Nicholas Vugman (Bartram Trail). 4. Cameron Broughton (Orange Park).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Ian McGuigan (Columbia).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Jerson Cabiao (Choctaw).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Josh Bower (Matanzas) v. Seth O’Gara (Pace).
My too-short take: The way they’ve wrestled this season, Hartzog and Vugman are the class of the field, and they meet in the top-half semi. Crowder has experience on his side.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Hartzog should move through without incident, will get a test in the quarter from McGuigan.
Second quarter: Vugman’s got a tricky path, with a decent first-rounder and then Middleburg’s Austin Benton in the quarter.
Third quarter: Crowder will have a solid battle in the quarters with Cabiao.
Bottom quarter: Broughton has a bye; could see tough match with Bower/O’Gara winner in quarter because of lesser warmup due to that bye.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Preston Turner (Ponte Vedra), Brandon Biello (Tate), CJ Sexton (Creekside), O’Gara. Turner’s match should be the most competitive.
Consi round 2 projected: Bower, Cabiao, Benton, McGuigan. Cabiao went 5-1 in the semi with Biello at Crestview last week.
Consi quarters projected: Cabiao, McGuigan. Both of these matches are going to be can’t-miss.
Semis/Consi semis: Hartzog/Vugman will have a state-placer feel to that match; Crowder/Broughton will be experience vs. athleticism in the bottom. Vugman and Broughton both will have too much scoring firepower for their consi semi opponents.

126: 1. Chace Curtis (Columbia). 2. Dean Ganci (Orange Park). 3. Gabe Jacobs (Gulf Breeze). 4. Owen Moore (Pace).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Rett Maritato (Ponte Vedra).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Ikeon Myles (Lincoln), Stone White (Matanzas).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Myles v. Moore.
My too-short take: As in 120, two strongest kids are in the same top half. Ganci will get a tough semifinal, but should move through.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Jacobs should be in command on Friday, defeating Creekside’s Colin Brown in the quarter.
Second quarter: Curtis has two OK kids in his path, but they shouldn’t stop him, with a win over Maritato in the quarter.
Third quarter: Ganci advances out, with a win over District 1 runnerup Jacky Grissom of Choctaw in the quarter.
Bottom quarter: Not 100% sold on this one, but I have Moore advancing out. Could see any one of the three kids (Moore, White, Myles) get to Saturday on the front side and not be surprised.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Austin Bustion (Ed White), Evan Mickey (Niceville), Jacob Sorgen (Nease), Myles. Mickey vs. Tyler Crawford (Englewood) could be a good match.
Consi round 2 projected: White, Grissom, Maritato, Myles. Best matchup could be the District 1 rivals setup between Grissom and Mickey.
Consi quarters projected: White, Myles. The White-Grissom match will feel like a blood round event, with two seniors going at it.
Semis/Consi semis: Curtis should move past Jacobs and into the final; Jacobs is an up-and-comer, Curtis is looking for second state title. Ganci to move past Moore in the bottom half. Jacobs will be too strong in the top half consi semi (that’s why, for Moore/Myles/White, best chance of going to states is to make the semi). I have Moore and Myles reprising their first-rounder in the blood round bottom half.

132: 1. Lawrence Russo (Matanzas). 2. Gannon Janssen (Nease). 3. Daniel Mann (Columbia). 4. Matthew Blalock (Tate).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Jacob McGowan (Ridgeview).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Keane Creager (Niceville); Chris Burch (Middleburg).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Janssen v. Michael Walls (Gulf Breeze).
My too-short take: Should be a District 4 finals rematch in the final, but Janssen’s road to pulling it off won’t be easy, and Russo will at least have a tough semifinal.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Blalock should move through to the semis, with a victory over Lincoln’s Hayden Buzick in the quarter.
Second quarter: Russo has two OK kids to get through, but should get through them, facing McGowan in the quarter.
Third quarter: It’s Mann’s quarter, with him facing off against Creager in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Janssen gets two solid opponents, taking on Walls and then Burch in the quarterfinal, to advance on the front side to Saturday.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Dairo Guerra (Englewood); Brandon Nicholson (Milton); Max Patterson (Creekside); Walls. Best match probably Patterson vs. Orange Park’s Arlo Wilson.
Consi round 2 projected: Burch, Creager, McGowan, Walls. McGowan v. Patterson could be a competitive Friday-nighter.
Consi quarters projected: Creager, Walls. Less sure about the top half, as Burch is solid; I think Walls has enough in the bottom half.
Semis/Consi semis: Front side is going to be all-out war in both matches; I’d expect the winner on both sides to HAVE to score double-digit points to win. Blalock has a fall in hand over Creager in the top-half consi semi, from districts last week, while Mann will be too solid for Walls in the bottom half.

138: 1. Jacob Satterfield (Nease). 2. Saeid Ejmali (Ridgeview). 3. Matt Ross (Columbia). 4. Cameron Bennett (Pace).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Ian Eckert (Matanzas).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Logan Myers (Choctaw); Storm Mercado (Middleburg); Angel Ortega (Crestview).
First-round matches worth the price of admission: Myers v. Mercado; Ortega v. Justin Stoddard (Ed White).
My too-short take: What a war this would be, between two defending region champs in the finals. Ejmali’s route is easier. Satterfield will have two solid kids in the quarters and semis to contend with.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: In a quadrant with four kids above .500, Bennett should be tops, with win over Eckert in the quarter.
Second quarter: Ejmali should move through solidly, facing Creekside’s Jake Summers in the quarter.
Third quarter: Winner of Myers/Mercado gets Ross in the quarter; Ross should be favored to advance.
Bottom quarter: Satterfield’s to lose; he should see Ortega in the quarters.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Michael Miralles (Chiles), Dylan Lawrence (Gulf Breeze), Mercado; Stoddard. Lawrence vs. Lincoln’s Anderson Stennett could get interesting.
Consi round 2 projected: Ortega, Myers, Mercado, Eckert. Could see at least three barnburners in the Friday night round.
Consi quarters projected: Ortega, Mercado. Both Ortega & Myers, the 1-2 seeds at District 1, took losses to Bennett. Mercado might have too much offense in his quarter.
Semis/Consi semis: I think Ejmali’s semi is easier than Satterfield’s, but the pair of defending region champs should meet up in the final. Bennett had a solid 8-2 win in hand from districts over Ortega, and I think Ross’s attacks are going to be difficult to overcome in the bottom half.

145: 1. Tyrone Jones (Matanzas). 2. Carlos Bogan (Choctaw). 3. Eli Crum (Lincoln). 4. Ethan Billhimer (Pace).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Dustin Tollison (Middleburg); Luis Parrales (Bartram Trail).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Calvin Malo (Gulf Breeze).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Malo v. Christian Downs (Ridgeview).
My too-short take: I don’t see Jones not winning; he and Crum are the two best kids, and on the same half of the bracket. Bogan might see his most intense match in the Friday evening quarterfinal.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Bogan is projected to move through, but the Bogan/Parrales quarter could determine the top-half finalist.
Second quarter: In a somewhat-even quadrant, Tollison can move through, but he’s got two decent matchups to get there, with Columbia’s Matt Raulerson in the quarter.
Third quarter: Second-strongest kid in the weight class, Crum, should get to the semis, but Malo will provide challenge in the quarter.
Bottom quarter: Jones may get some test from Billhimer in the quarter, but the bottom is Jones’ to lose.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Kevonte Times (Chiles), Sam Williams (Niceville), Downs, Tamer Fakhouri (Englewood). Williams vs. Creekside’s Jalen Hines a potential good one.
Consi round 2 projected: Billhimer, Malo, Downs, Parrales. Malo has a fall in hand over Williams, and the Downs-Raulerson one should be a solid match.
Consi quarters projected: Billhimer, Parrales. Billhimer has a fall in hand over Malo from districts, Parrales has quietly become leader for the Bears.
Semis/Consi semis: Bogan will have to turn back a determined challenge from Tollison, while Jones should advance past Crum. Billhimer wrestled at 170 for Pace as a freshman and I think can move forward. Crum has enough for Parrales, but it wouldn’t surprise me if somehow Parrales makes it out in some scenario.

152: 1. Nate Golmon (Tate). 2. Bailey Howes (Niceville). 3. Tanner Hill (Nease). 4. Bryce Williams (Middleburg).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Reed Propes (Ridgeview).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Austin Nolan (Chiles), Jacob Cooney (Creekside), Anthony Root (Pace).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Root v. Cooney.
My too-short take: Am seeing a District 1 rematch in the finals, with Hill — who might be the next-best kid in the group — feeding into same semi as Golmon. Both semis are going to be great, though.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Golmon should move through without much incident, projected to face Lincoln’s Reed Watterson in the quarter.
Second quarter: Should be Hill’s quadrant to get to Saturday, should see Propes in the quarter.
Third quarter: Howes won regions a year ago, can get back there, but Nolan will be a very very tough out in the quarters.
Bottom quarter: Williams should set the pace in this quarter, but either Cooney or Root will be a tough quarterfinal match.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Christian Crews (Bartram Trail), Obie Smith (Columbia), Christian Rios (St Augustine), Root. Top half of this round, Crews vs. Terry Parker’s Ashley Saddler & Smith vs. Choctaw’s Paul Roberts, should be better matches.
Consi round 2 projected: Cooney, Nolan, Propes, Root. Root vs. Watterson I think would be the most even of the lot.
Consi quarters projected: Nolan, Root. Top-half consi quarter will feel like a blood-rounder.
Semis/Consi semis: As I mentioned, these semis should have plenty of fireworks. I would not be surprised if both of them went the other way from my first-impression bracket. As initially reviewed though, Hill might be too tough for Nolan, and I think Williams has more variety in his offense than Root could easily handle. Do want to see Nolan make it out, after the struggle Timberwolves had this season.

160: 1. Jack Johnson (Niceville). 2. Billy Shaw (Creekside). 3. Alex Jacobs (Gulf Breeze). 4. Jaquenez Madison (Leon).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Jacob Campbell (Orange Park); Malachi Martin (Ridgeview); Juan Alvarez (Tate).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Nathan Gunn (Crestview).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Campbell v. Caleb Sutherland (Bartram Trail); Madison v. Alvarez.
My too-short take: This is a crazy bracket to try to predict. Goes 11 deep in my book. But the finals is one of the surest ones to predict. It’s the nine-kids-battling-for-two-spots thing that makes it crazy.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Should be Johnson’s semifinal berth, with a matchup against Campbell in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Madison should make it out, but he’ll be tested by Alvarez in round 1 and Martin in the quarters.
Third quarter: This is a tough quarter, too; Jacobs has the competition, but Stanton’s Mitchell Mika won’t be an easy out.
Bottom quarter: Shaw should move through without incident, with Gunn providing a contest in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Caleb Sutherland (Bartram Trail), Alvarez, Grayson Suggs (Nease), Bronson Carter (Gainesville). Alvarez was a region champ last year; for him to be fourth is a bit surprising.
Consi round 2 projected: Gunn, Alvarez, Martin, Campbell. Should be at least three great matches here.
Consi quarters projected: Gunn, Campbell. Gunn won by DQ over Alvarez in third-place match at District 1; Campbell and Martin went 3-2 in District 3 semi. Both should be good matches.
Semis/Consi semis: I think Johnson has the easier semifinal path; Jacobs might push Shaw a bit. Madison might have, if he’s on, too much attack in the consi semis, and Jacobs’ experience advantage should carry the day in the bottom half.

170: 1. Justin Grant (Lincoln). 2. Nick Woodward (Ft Walton Beach). 3. Tracey Beshara (St Augustine). 4. John Gunther (Pace).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Landon Dains (Terry Parker); David Thompson (Columbia).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Jackson Schoener (Niceville).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Nick Janssen (Nease) v. Tony Davis (Leon); Gunther v. John Tiedeman (Ridgeview).
My too-short take: Grant and Woodward are the class of the field, with Beshara not far behind if at all behind Woodward but on same side as Grant. Could be a couple of possibilities for the fourth spot.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Woodward should advance through, facing Thompson in the quarterfinal round.
Second quarter: Dains should be able to push through Friday on the front side, facing Nease’s Nick Janssen in the quarter.
Third quarter: Grant should not have many problems Friday; his first-rounder might be the most difficult match.
Bottom quarter: Beshara/Gunther could be a good quarterfinal, but I would expect Beshara to advance.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Sam Russo (Matanzas), Davis, Jacob Bennett (Bartram Trail), Tiedeman. Bennett was done no favors by the 1-0 third-place loss he took, because Grant in round 1 was the result.
Consi round 2 projected: Gunther, Schoener, Janssen, Thompson. Should be three close matches Friday night.
Consi quarters projected: Gunther, Thompson. Both of these, actually, look a little more straightforward than do the Friday night ones.
Semis/Consi semis: Woodward and Grant should both advance to the final on experience advantages if nothing more. I really could go back and forth on the Gunther/Dains top half consi semi. In the end, I went with the experience based upon schedule. Beshara would be too strong in the bottom half.

182: 1. Brandon Dickman (Creekside). 2. Tannen Slack (Gulf Breeze). 3. Jared Newhall (Lincoln). 4. Zion James (Columbia).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Jarrod Case (Nease); Jacob Moore (Orange Park).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Anthony Stafford (Tate).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Case v. Mason Judd (Leon).
My too-short take: Two best in the class on opposite sides, as we always hope it will be. Should be a District 2 rematch for third, as well.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Slack should move through with relative comfort, facing Case in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: James will have a tough matchup with Moore in the quarterfinal; the winner has an excellent shot of qualifying out.
Third quarter: Newhall is the top wrestler in the quadrant, should reach Saturday after a quarterfinal win over Ridgeview’s Kaine Avery.
Bottom quarter: Dickman might get some challenge from Stafford in the quarterfinal, but will move through.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Judd, Ralph Hamilton (Bartram Trail), Kaleb Williams (Ft Walton Beach), Pierre Toney (Gainesville).
Consi round 2 projected: Stafford, Avery, Moore, Case. Stafford vs. Judd should be the best of the Friday night quartet.
Consi quarters projected: Stafford, Moore. I think both of these look somewhat straightforward.
Semis/Consi semis: Both semi matches should be solid, but both Slack in the top half and Dickman in the bottom should advance through with convincing wins. James will have too much attack in the top half of the consi semis, while Newhall’s experience should prove key in the bottom half.

195: 1. Reed Danielson (Orange Park). 2. Connor Cleveland (Ft Walton Beach). 3. Trey Chesser (Creekside). 4. Brooks Harp (Bartram Trail).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Corey Ryan (Gainesville).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Rocky O’Rourke (Gulf Breeze).
First-round matches worth the price of admission: Harp v. Nick Siemenof (Ridgeview); Gus Altenburg (Lincoln) v. Azaya Purifoy (Tate).
My too-short take: Top seeds from the opposite sides of the state meet in the final. Should be a District 4 rematch in the third-place match.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Cleveland should move through without difficulty, facing Matanzas’ Christian Zaborowski in the quarterfinal.
Second quarter: Harp has a pair of tough matches, Siemenof in the opener and then Ryan in the quarter. That will be a big battle.
Third quarter: Danielson may get some challenge from O’Rourke; if he’s warm after not getting a first-rounder, he should move through.
Bottom quarter: Chesser should qualify out for the semis, facing Purifoy in the quarterfinal.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Landon Wilder (Ed White), Siemenof, Zhaquez Griffin (Columbia), Altenburg. Siemenof against Pace’s Wyatt Dillon is a match that could play out at regions a couple of times over the next two years.
Consi round 2 projected: Purifoy, O’Rourke, Ryan, Altenburg. These all look pretty straightforward.
Consi quarters projected: O’Rourke, Ryan. Ryan’s looks a little more straightforward than O’Rourke’s.
Semis/Consi semis: Cleveland should have enough varied experiences in his resume that he should be OK in the top half semi. Chesser is very good, but Danielson has been a force this year. Harp can qualify out with a solid match in the consi semi top half; it will be a war between Ryan and Chesser in the bottom half.

220: 1. Kolton McDaniel (Bartram Trail). 2. Coleman Young (Crestview). 3. Jacob Tisdale (Gulf Breeze). 4. Darrius Pena (Niceville).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Nick Thoresen (Nease).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Logan Wells (Matanzas); Tyler Huff (Ridgeview).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Huff v. Wells.
My too-short take: District 1 strength should show through here, but McDaniel should be equal to the task.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Young should be the semifinalist, facing off against Ed White’s Anthony Jones in the quarters.
Second quarter: Thoresen has a solid shot at qualifying out through the first day, with a match against Lincoln’s Reggie Toombs in the quarters.
Third quarter: Tisdale has the experience advantage and should move through, taking on Huff in the quarters.
Bottom quarter: McDaniel will have a solid test in the quarters against Pena, but I think he should get out.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Caleb Dickens (Creekside), Evan Blackman (Terry Parker), Wells, Kouvaris Combs (Columbia).
Consi round 2 projected: Pena, Huff, Wells, Combs. Wells against Toombs is the one that could go either way most likely.
Consi quarters projected: Pena, Wells. The Wells-Combs one, also, could go either way.
Semis/Consi semis: Experience should carry Young through in the top-half semi, while I call, on my first-impression bracket, in favor of McDaniel in what should be a great bottom-half semi. Pena and Tisdale have either #s of matches, or experience, on their side in the consi semis, and that will be key.

285: 1. Saul Storey (Creekside). 2. Xavier Molina (Crestview). 3. Noah Young (Gulf Breeze). 4. Connor Saint (Milton).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): JT Rivers (Lincoln).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Donnie Wilburn (Gainesville), Justin Thompson (Bartram Trail).
First-round match worth the price of admission: Molina v. Thompson.
My too-short take: Another weight where District 1 is particularly strong. There’s a couple of interesting possibles out there, beyond Storey, but some are still just a year away yet, or have bad matchups in this draw.
Local outlook —
Top quarter: Young, who might be second-best in this bracket, should move through after facing Rivers in the quarter.
Second quarter: Storey should not have any issues in reaching the semis, after facing Ridgeview’s Nai Rousseau in the quarters.
Third quarter: Molina will have had two tough matches to get to the semis, first with Thompson and then Wilburn in the quarterfinal.
Bottom quarter: Saint is the most experienced wrestler in the bottom quadrant, and that could be the difference.
Consi round 1 projected winners: Darius Stanley (St Augustine), Brody Deloach (Pace), Thompson, Cecil Bermudez (Matanzas). Bermudez v. Columbia’s Noah Stubblefield is the most intriguing one in the group.
Consi round 2 projected: Christopher Lands (Englewood), Wilburn, Thompson, Rivers. Wilburn over Deloach could be a barnburner.
Consi quarters projected: Wilburn, Thompson. The Thompson-Rivers matchup has potential to go either way.
Semis/Consi semis: Storey has seen enough big matches that he should be able to get through, and Molina has a 2-0 win over Saint in hand from districts. I have Young picked to win the top-half, but Wilburn is a real wild card (I saw no results of his this year, he must have only competed at Villages prior to the post-season) and I think Saint will move through in the bottom half.

Brackets for this region can be found here.

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Heads Up

I was just alerted to this — the coaches probably know — but the 3A-Region 1 start time has been moved back from noon to 1 p.m. on Friday. Weigh-ins are set for 11 a.m.

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Thank You Sponsors

Before I get started on the 2A-Region 1 preview sure to be wrong, I thought I should take a few minutes and thank this past week’s sponsors.

As I mentioned, this fundraising effort is for the long haul. Even in what has seemed like an impossibly light week for me, we put in 50-55 solid hours of time on this thing. That is serious time spent.

That being said, it’s felt weird to begin the process of decluttering my apartment even before states end, and going to the gym 5x per week was NEVER something I would have considered in the past. When you have reasons to do things, it’s a pleasant experience. We’re on an upward swing.

Thank you to those who donated this past week!

  • Rick Marabell. Creekside coach. The Knights are usually in the mix every year to get their upcoming schedule to me first, and I never have to wonder if their results are accurate, or if the results are showing up, or will I have a place to work when I go there. It’s been a pleasure to work with Coach Marabell and his staff and kids.
  • Greg Beenen. Parent to Nick and Nate. Mr. Beenen has been nothing but gracious to our efforts for some time now, and it’s great to see the progress Nick’s made in the past four seasons.
  • Andy Dance. Parent to Drew. The Flagler parents have been super-passionate for a long time, even before I started covering the Bulldogs match-in-and-match-out. Wrestling really matters in Flagler County.
  • Thomas McDonald. I don’t know Mr. McDonald, but I think he’s a Bartram Trail parent. I appreciate his commitment to our site.

And I appreciate your commitment to our site. Now, it’s time to get back to work…

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#RoadToTheShow: 3A-Region 1 Recap

3A-Region 1 preview

When & where: Hagerty HS, Oviedo. First session is set for 1 p.m. Friday (11 a.m. weigh-ins). Saturday’s first session is set for 10 a.m., finals in this particular instance are set for 6 p.m. per the FHSAA website; however, tournament directors are often willing to move up that start time to meet the needs of traveling teams, even changing the schedule while the meet is in progress.
Team favorite: Fleming Island, top-ranked in the Northeast and champions in our area’s District 1, put up a 291-point performance last weekend at Oakleaf, and are going to be hard to beat.
Can anybody challenge the Golden Eagles?: Yes, but Fleming Island has been battle-tested against the rest of the region on a few different occasions this year. It would take a massive effort, even from solid teams like Hagerty, Winter Springs, Freedom and third-ranked Northeast team Flagler Palm Coast, to stand point-for-point.
Local outlook in a nutshell: FPCHS has a solid shot for a top-five team finish, and I would expect that both Buchholz and Oakleaf could contend for top-10 positions with solid tournaments. The remainder of the outlook will be published weight class-by-weight class. First thing to be said is — this is, for most of the kids in this tournament — the toughest tournament they will have been in all season. A lot of decent kids go home early. Region 1 is the deepest of the four 3A tournaments.

The key thing to remember: Prove me wrong. Or prove me right. I like either one. I’m not telling which one is better. You’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.

Matmen’s state qualifier predictions, sure to be wrong —

106: 1. Louis Gagliardo (Fleming Island). 2. Luis Pasarell (Lake Howell). 3. Ryan Rowland (Hagerty). 4. Caleb Desroches (Winter Springs).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Zion Gonzalez (University-Orange City).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Erick Rocher (Freedom); Trent Burke (Flagler Palm Coast.
First-round match worth price of admission: Burke v. Desroches. Sets tone for a good chunk of this bracket.
My too-short take: With the top two wrestlers in the weight class both schematicked into the top half, the semifinal will have a very heavy weight in determining the champion. I went back-and-forth on the bottom-half semi and bottom-half blood round match.
Local outlook: The top quarter sets up well for Gagliardo to move into Saturday without a great deal of upset; Rowland, in the semis, is the greatest challenge. The final will either be against someone Rowland teched last week at districts or someone Gagliardo teched earlier in the season. Burke’s first-rounder determines a lot of things. I have him reaching the blood round, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be a semifinalist at all. Robert E. Lee freshman Shawn Butler has an experienced tough customer in Pasarell to open the tournament; I project him to meet Winter Park Friday night. Getting to Saturday might be possible. If Mandarin freshman Nathan Bremer can rally quickly from the Rowland storm in the first round, he might be able to advance to the second round of consis.

113: 1. Briar Jackson (Fleming Island). 2. John Johnson (Flagler Palm Coast). 3. Jared Purcell (Lake Mary). 4. Christian Fields (Freedom).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Angel Giraldo (Lake Howell).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Jason Schwartz (First Coast).
First-round match worth price of admission: Abdiert Escobar (Oakleaf) v. Jacen McMath (Apopka).
My too-short take: Jackson should not be troubled too much by the top half of the bracket. Johnson’s got a little more gauntlet in front of him, with Purcell in the quarters and Fields, most likely, in the semi. But they’ll get a chance to face off in the final.
Local outlook: I don’t see a scenario, barring a major thing, where Jackson and Johnson don’t reach the final. Both are focused enough on the prize that this should occur. They didn’t wrestle at districts, Johnson injury-defaulted, so we may see the matchup coming Saturday. Schwartz’s path has a bit more diversity to it. A great match against Fields in the quarters would get him to Saturday on the front side of the bracket. I have the competition that Freedom sees pulling Fields through, but Schwartz should certainly get to Saturday at minimum and perhaps give himself a shot with state on the line. That could be true to some degree for Escobar, too, particularly with a win over McMath in round 1.

120: 1. Dylan Kohn (Hagerty). 2. Jayden Bradshaw (Boone). 3. Ryan Rosano (Oakleaf). 4. Albie Snedaker (Fleming Island).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Christian Sheppard (Flagler Palm Coast).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Amstrong Lubin (Freedom).
First-round match worth price of admission: Sheppard v. Bradshaw. 81 wins there.
My too-short take: Not sure I want to face an on-a-mission Bradshaw; Kohn I think might have too much for Snedaker. Both semis should be very good. Could see three state placers — at least — come out of this bracket.
Local outlook: Whether Rosano makes the semis is not too much of an open question for me, I believe he will. And Rosano does have a win in hand (Flagler) and just might have the chops to win the whole thing. But I remember how Bradshaw left the mat at Flagler and I think, between that and not being able to wrestle at regions last year, he’s going to be locked in. So, either way, not much would surprise me in that top half. Snedaker won’t have an easy go against West Port’s Jayden Crum in the quarters, and then Kohn looms in the semi. I do think he’ll be in control of the bottom-half consi, however. Sheppard made it to states a year ago at 106, and his draw just doesn’t help him this time, with Bradshaw right off the bat. Still, he’s got the the chops to win three in the back — even in this weight class, which is pretty loaded — and reach the blood round and either Rosano or Bradshaw a second time. Fletcher’s James Knox has a solid Saturday shot, although Lubin is a tough draw in round 1, and he’ll have to beat a decent wrestler (Apopka or Lake Mary) Friday night to get there.

126: 1. Smaill Saint Pierre (Freedom). 2. Jacob Sandoval (Fleming Island). 3. Corban Arana (Timber Creek). 4. Noel Soto (Boone).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Ezekiel McEntire (Seminole).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Carl Patrick (Hagerty); Luke Hopkins (Mandarin).
First-round match worth price of admission: Arana v. Tanner Chamness (Lake Brantley).
My too-short take: Sandoval should get through, even with two tough matches in Soto and Arana in the quarters and semis, respectively. Saint Pierre’s been there, though, and that will make a difference in the bottom half.
Local outlook: Sandoval will have tough matches in both the quarters and semis, matches that will take a lot out of him, and Saint Pierre’s seen enough quality competition over the course of the year that he should be ready. But certainly Sandoval will qualify out and (can) reach the final. We’ll see in the final; Sandoval’s been on the attack much more this year. Mandarin’s Luke Hopkins, despite a one-sided loss at districts, still controls a good chunk of his own destiny. Facing a solid Patrick in the quarters could determine which kid goes into the top half to have a shot at qualifying out there. Saint Pierre might be too strong and quick, however. I have Hopkins in the final six; qualifying is not impossible. Flagler Palm Coast’s Drew Dance has a winnable first-rounder, despite facing a district champ, and could have a good shot at Saturday. Best chance for Saturday for Fletcher’s Colton Lawrence is a first-round win, so that he can go into the top half of the consis. A first-round loss means staying on the bottom, where either Sandoval or Soto would fall into the Friday night matchup. That’s not good for the opponent.

132: 1. Avery Holder (Flagler Palm Coast). 2. Jaquan English (Fleming Island). 3. Matthew Phillips (Winter Springs). 4. Andrew Fletcher (Boone).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Michael Dezego (Hagerty).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): DJ Dean (Cypress Creek).
First-round match worth price of admission: Dean v. DeAngelo Fletcher (Buchholz).
My too-short take: Fully expect a District 1 finals rematch in this one; the District 3 and 4 champions are tough kids, but Holder and English are on another level this year. Both blood-round matches should also be district-final rematches.
Local outlook: Holder has locked in now that it’s the post-season; we saw it at Flagler and it continued last weekend at Oakleaf. He will have an excellent chance to repeat as region champ. Meanwhile, it’s back to the drawing board for English, who drew first blood in the rivalry with a win at region duals. Either one of these guys could win it all this weekend. Buchholz’s Fletcher has a good chance to get to Saturday, even if he loses in round 1, with two winnable matches coming afterward and a chance of a win in the consi quarter. I am not sure he would get past Phillips in the blood round, though. Fletcher’s Ivante White, too, might be able to string together two wins and get to Saturday; the bracketing really helps him with that possibility.

138: 1. Ethan Woods (Hagerty). 2. JJ Contreras (Winter Springs). 3. Dwight Parker (Apopka). 4. Michael Martins (Flagler Palm Coast).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Dalton Williams (Fleming Island).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Ethan Gustilo (Oakleaf); Manny Fernandez (Lake Mary).
First-round matches worth price of admission: Gustilo v. Contreras; Martins v. Fernandez.
My too-short take: I don’t like moving through just one District 1 kid, but Woods is too strong on the top half of the bracket, and there’s three strong possibles and a maybe, as far as moving out, in the bottom half.
Local outlook: Honestly, District 1 could get three kids out, or it could get none out this weekend. That’s good in that there are several possibilities for wrestlers to advance, but not as good as, say, 132, where the district has two spots on lockdown. I see Williams making the semis on Saturday; both of his Friday matches should be controllable. It all comes down to the consi semi and who he might get there. He does have the win in hand over Martins going back to region duals. Martins, too, I think, will be a semifinalist if he holds serve and gets past Fernandez in round 1. I’m not as sure that Gustilo can win over Contreras in the first round, but I am sure that he can win three on the back and at least get to the blood round, where Martins would be waiting, with his 10-3 win in hand at districts. Fletcher’s Douglas Tappin, if he can clear past the Woods first-rounder, should be able to get to Friday night, but he would get either Parker or Contreras/Gustilo there, and that’s a tough match.

145: 1. Devin Kohn (Hagerty). 2. Dominic Isola (Oviedo). 3. Vince Hauser (Fleming Island). 4. Hayden McCandless (Winter Springs).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Jared Weed (Lake Mary).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Jonathan Rodriguez (West Port); Carlos Matos (Timber Creek).
First-round matches worth price of admission: Hauser v. Weed; Billy Green-Church (Buchholz) v. Isola; McCandless v. Trenton Carroll (Oakleaf).
My too-short take: This is another three or one weight class for the district. Kohn and Hauser probably the two strongest kids, at least in my view, and they meet in the semi. Bottom half is going to be a real shootout for two spots, with six kids in play.
Local outlook: Hauser’s bracket also sets up well for a semifinals appearance, although he won’t be able to look past Weed, in particular, right out of the chute. Kohn will be too tall an order, but finishing third, with the only loss to Kohn, would be a good tournament for Hauser. It’s a tangled mess of solid kids in the bottom half, and certainly both Carroll and Green-Church are in the midst of that. Both would not be favored to win in round 1, but both could, and even if they don’t, both should put themselves in position for Saturday appearances (Green-Church’s road would be slightly safer). One of them could very well make the blood round. I expect to see Robert E. Lee’s Darius Wells win a match Friday. Saturday would be an amazing tournament.

152: 1. Logan Perkins (Hagerty). 2. Curtis Brock (Flagler Palm Coast). 3. Zion Trent (Lyman). 4. Reggie Smith (Cypress Creek).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Roody Edouard (Apopka).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Trevor Beck (Windermere); Luke Chop (Fleming Island).
First-round match worth price of admission: Edouard v. Mike Esler (Winter Springs).
My too-short take: Brock’s improved a lot from last year to this; he’s my solid finals favorite. Perkins too much for everyone on the bottom half of the bracket. Another bracket with seven or so possibilities.
Local outlook: Brock will have some good matches to work through in the quarters and semis, with Edouard in the quarter and Trent/Smith in the semi. Perkins is probably too tall an order in the final, though. Chop’s got a winnable first-rounder and a semifinal appearance is not beyond the realm of possibility. I think the top half of the consi bracket looks more promising than the bottom half. Sandalwood’s Lavaughn Brown should be able to win at least one match on Friday, as should Robert E. Lee’s Caleb Zaccheo, but the general competitive level of the Friday night matches they’d have (Brown gets Edouard and Zaccheo gets Chop in my first-impression bracket) might make Saturday a very tall order.

160: 1. Trace Insalaco (Fleming Island). 2. Mason Perkins (Hagerty). 3. Wyatt Forsberg (Oviedo). 4. Thanks Alcius (Apopka).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Jordan Mobley (Buchholz); Muib Akinyele (Olympia).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Michael Zito (Cypress Creek).
First-round matches worth price of admission: Perkins v. Quentin Lee (Winter Park); Zito v. Forsberg.
My too-short take: This bracket is crazy, and it left me feeling I’ve put myself out on a high wire. There may be 10 kids who could get out of this region. There will be a lot of attention on the Forsberg-Insalaco quarterfinal, on that I’m fairly certain.
Local outlook: Mobley wasn’t done any favors by the schematic, slotting in with Perkins, who forfeited in the District 3 final to Forsberg. That’s a very tough quarterfinal, but I have him winning at least two matches to reach the blood round, and would not be surprised to see him get out (he’s one of the 10). Insalaco will have to remember the lessons of matches in the past two weeks and adjust accordingly, but when on, he might be the most talented kid in the field. It’s going to be some tougher sledding for Oakleaf’s Lavell Jones and Mandarin’s Dylen Worthington. Jones is in a quadrant with 92 wins, while Worthington’s has 82, with potential for very solid Friday night opponents.

170: 1. Paul Detwiler (Fleming Island). 2. Keyshon Talley (Apopka). 3. Justin Segarra (Hagerty). 4. Armando Acosta (Buchholz).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Austin Parker (Winter Park).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Brian Santiago (Timber Creek).
First-round match worth price of admission: Isaiah Graham (Oakleaf) v. Justin Degale-Stewart (Lake Mary).
My too-short take: The best match of the bracket is the Detwiler-Segarra semifinal. That’s your top half. The bottom half is considerably more wide-open. Going with the safe choice in Talley, but there’s three with very good shots at it.
Local outlook: Detwiler’s been locked in since…I don’t know, maybe last year, certainly since November. Every event on the Golden Eagle calendar, he has outshone the competition. Just two more to go. I have Acosta qualifying fourth, but I would not at all be surprised if he made the finals again this week. It won’t be easy; he’s got good kids in the quarter and semi (Santiago & Talley, respectively). He was an outside threat to qualify at 182; at this lower weight, with his speed and strength, it’s all there. Oakleaf’s Isaiah Graham should have a path to Saturday, at least, after meeting up with Talley in the quarters, as he should be seeing district rival Devante Wyatt in Friday night. Wyatt gets Segarra in the first match, but should have a winnable first consi round.

182: 1. Kendrik Koller (Apopka). 2. Bobby Williams (Winter Springs). 3. Wilbur Thomas (Flagler Palm Coast). 4. Lawrence Smith-Jackson (Buchholz).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Ezequiel Rivera (Boone).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): Anthony Breeden (Fleming Island).
First-round match worth price of admission: Breeden vs. Ethan Lopez (Hagerty).
My too-short take: Koller and Williams are the class of the field; I thought Thomas would win District 1 and before his injury-default he was in place to do just that.
Local outlook: Thomas should be able to make the semis, but the University-Orlando kid won a district over some kids I didn’t expect he would, so he’ll have to be careful in that Friday afternoon quarterfinal. Smith-Jackson’s road to the semis should be slightly easier — as it should be for a district champ — but I think Williams will be too strong there. Breeden hits Koller in the quarters, but then should be able to get all the way back to the blood round, where he would face Smith-Jackson with states on the line. Sandalwood’s Leonardo Alonzo gets Williams in the first round, which is a tough draw, but he should be able to win a match on Friday.

195: 1. Raymond Haverty (Deland). 2. Jessiah Contreras (Winter Springs). 3. Matthew Simms (Apopka). 4. Jalyn Robinson (Fleming Island).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Kevin Perez (Oak Ridge); Anthony Coleman (Timber Creek).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Marc Dillard (Freedom), Jamari Broussard (Atlantic Coast).
First-round match worth price of admission: Coleman vs. Matthew Kaplan (Hagerty).
My too-short take: There’s four pretty clear semifinalists in this draw, based upon their resumes and the bracket. I think we’ll see a District 3 rematch in the final. Simms is one of Apopka’s best, along with Koller, and Dillard should emerge out of the bottom half.
Local outlook: Robinson wasn’t done any favors by the bracket, with Contreras there as a quarterfinal matchup. But I don’t think Robinson would be pushed hard again until the blood round, when he would be, per my first-impression bracket, facing Dillard with a state berth on the line. I’m not sure about it; the offense is going to have to be charged up to get Robinson there. I can see Broussard getting as far as the blood round, too, as he would be facing Haverty in the quarters. He’s got a taller order, though, in facing Simms in that round. Robert E. Lee’s Christopher Telusma has a winnable first-rounder, and should be able to get to Friday night. With 103 wins in his quadrant, Mandarin’s Triston Herndon will have a tough time getting that far.

220: 1. Ryan Smenda (Fleming Island). 2. Will Litsey (Lake Mary). 3. Tyler Irigoyen (Flagler Palm Coast). 4. Patchiney Prophete (Freedom).
Dark horses (top half of bracket): Michael Handy (Apopka); Edmond Wals (University-ORL).
Dark horse (bottom half of bracket): None.
First-round match worth price of admission: Daniel Saint John (Winter Springs) v. Jacob Schalk (Timber Creek).
My too-short take: In the top half of the bracket, there seems to be more kids capable of getting out. It’s the ones who will be able to win and then get into the bottom half of the consis that could be the surprises. Smenda at the top, though, is not one of them.
Local outlook: Even with a partial season, Smenda is the class of the field and might not have a very challenging match until the final at least. At first, I had Irigoyen reaching the final to join Smenda for a second consecutive week. He’s clearly got the chops to get there — but, then, so, too, does Litsey. This will definitely be Irigoyen’s bracket to lose in 2019, but he’d have to earn his way into the final (it can be done). Robert E. Lee’s Leo White is certainly capable of winning in the first round, but Prophete’s experience in higher-level matches would be key in the quarter. White could get to Saturday’s round. It wouldn’t surprise me, also, to see Fletcher’s Matthew Strong win at least one match Friday.

285: 1. Jose Concepcion (Fleming Island). 2. Ben Moxley (Lake Mary). 3. Darrell Lowe (Freedom). 4. Matt Saint John (Winter Springs).
Dark horse (top half of bracket): Nicolas Walker (Hagerty).
Dark horses (bottom half of bracket): Clayton Vogel (Apopka); Stanley Hollenbach (Fletcher); Keon Bush (Oak Ridge).
First-round match worth price of admission: Hollenbach v. Derek Martinez (Cypress Creek); Lowe v. Aaron Menden (Buchholz).
My too-short take: I think Concepcion’s experience is going to be enough to carry the day; having been before is a big thing, but he’ll see kids from solid teams, that have something to prove. Bottom half is wide open; watch out for Bush. He could make finals.
Local outlook: The toughest match Concepcion could see might be in the semis, where he would face Lowe. I think that match could determine the champion, but I’m not going to necessarily go so far as to say they’re the best two in the field. Hollenbach should certainly be in the mix to reach Saturday’s rounds, either by winning at least one consi match Friday night or by reaching the semis. A semifinal appearance would be a very solid tournament indeed. Flagler Palm Coast’s Anthony Cinelli was impressive in taking third, and should be able to win a match, even given that Bush would be a handful in round 1. Menden, too, should be able to win one match after facing off against Lowe in the first round.

Brackets for this region can be found here.

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