1A-3 meet preview
When & where: Saturday starting at 9:45 a.m. at Yulee High School. Finals schedule to be determined per the FHSAA website.
If you go: From Jacksonville, take I-95 North to Exit 373 for Florida 200/A1A toward Callahan/Fernandina Beach. Go 0.2 miles, keep right at the fork, follow signs for Yulee/Amelia Island/Fernandina Beach and merge onto A1A South/FL-200. Follow A1A south for 4.0 miles until you reach Miner Road; turn right. Follow Miner for 1.5 miles, Yulee High School should be on right-hand side.
Teams in the field: Only just today was local #6 Bishop Snyder added to Scout’s list of state-ranked teams. The Cardinals enter the rankings ranked 21st overall, and should be a solid favorite to win the district championship. It could be quite a good fight among several times for second through sixth places, as I could see five teams (Forrest, Fernandina Beach, West Nassau, Yulee and Baker County) all battling for spots. The Rebels were a top-five team at Gateway two weeks ago, the host Hornets are Nassau County champions and Fernandina is a team on the move of late. Paxon, Raines and Andrew Jackson are short-handed by comparison. Each of those schools have a chance to move kids on, even several kids on, but probably won’t be factors in the team race.
106: Projections are difficult here, because we have a grouping of teams that don’t see each other all that much, between the west/north side of Duval County and Nassau County. Plus one of the teams is missing an awful lot of results during the regular season. So we’re going to start with what we know, and these are going to read a little differently than the others: I have not seen a 106 for Jackson, for Baker County, for Forrest or for West Nassau at least recently. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Parker Poitevint for Bishop Snyder, Rafael Charriez for Fernandina Beach, Wesley Sadler or Adam Foster for Paxon, Nephi Haynes or Jemell Jones for Raines. Who I’m not sure about is Yulee. Dylan Youmans spent some time here but as best as I can tell didn’t wrestle at Camden’s duals two weeks ago. I will make a conditional pick, therefore. If Youmans is here, I would choose him as the favorite to win. If not, I’m going to go with Poitevint over Charriez, although the two haven’t met this year, that I can see. Not sure who the fourth would be between Sadler/Foster and Haynes/Jones. If I knew Foster was at 106, he’d be the fourth. NOW…if Baker brings in a kid or two that they have (Cody Miller might immediately leap to 1st, but I only have 4 matches for him all year, and Sydney Williams has beaten a couple of kids, so might be in the mix for fourth if she wrestles as well).
113: I have not seen a 113 for Jackson, for Baker County (in a while), or for West Nassau (for a while). I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Brenden Bizier of Bishop Snyder, Zachary Watson of Fernandina, Delmontae Davis of Forrest, Foster for Paxon (if he’s not at 106), whoever between Haynes and Jones didn’t go 106 for Raines, and am less sure that Yulee will have John Parker here. I am thinking Watson must have come over to Fernandina from Yulee, as I do have a few matches for a Zachary Watson of Yulee, but all were early. Based on what I see, I am going with Bizier as the favorite to win the district. He’s had the most varied competition this year. For the 2-4 spots, I see it being a Nassau fight between Watson and Parker, with Foster also perhaps in the mix there and maybe Davis as well. Baker did have a few 106s in the course of the season; any of them could go at 113 and upset this apple cart. Again, if Miller were here, even with limited mat time I might vault him to the top.
120: I have not seen a 120 for Jackson or for Raines. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Shawn Martin for Baker, Troy Bilodeau for Bishop Snyder, Joseph Helm for Fernandina, Aniko Patterson for Forrest, Hayden Lenman for Paxon, TJ Thompson for West Nassau and Ty Youmans for Yulee. Based on what I see here, Helm is the favorite to win the district. I would say the solid favorite, except that he did lose 3-2 to Youmans earlier in the season. Those are the solid top two. I look at Bilodeau, Martin and Thompson as the likeliest candidates to fight it out for 3 and 4; both Bilodeau and Thompson have pins over Martin, but haven’t met each other. Patterson and Lenman might find rough going and will likely have to try to fight their way through out of the consis.
126: I have not seen a 126 for Baker County, Bishop Snyder or Raines. This makes it a Nassau County battle, for the most part. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Daisan Biffle for Andrew Jackson, Tharin Hessenauer for Fernandina, Kuyvonta Broadwater for Forrest, either Ryan Ochoa or Osiris Mancera for Paxon, Zach Hixson for West Nassau and Demarcus Scott for Yulee. I see this as a 1-2-3 Nassau sweep, with Hessenauer the solid favorite to win the title. Hessenauer beat another West Nassau wrestler earlier in the year and has a pin over Scott, and has been locally ranked all season. Assuming that Hixson and Scott stay here, this should be a good semifinal. Fourth will be interesting. If Ochoa represents Paxon, he should be the fourth, given that he pinned Biffle at the Gateway. If Mancera is there, then I think Biffle would be the fourth.
132: I have not seen a 132 for Andrew Jackson. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Brandon Harvey for Baker County, Teddy Guillory for Bishop Snyder, Jade Welsh for Fernandina, Dale George for Forrest, Darius Veals for Paxon, John Jones for Raines, Jacob Savage for West Nassau, and mostly sure that Phoenix Mikell would go for Yulee. Based on what I see here, Harvey should be the heavy favorite to win the district. Newly-minted with a statewide ranking (14th, as of today’s last update), Harvey has only one 1A loss and that was out-of-region. I think that the trio of Guillory – who didn’t start the year until earlier this month – and George and Savage will battle it out for the remaining three slots, but all three have the edge over the rest of the field when it comes to moving on.
138: I have not seen a 138 for Andrew Jackson or for Raines. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Logan Kish for Baker County, Jonathan Radomski for Bishop Snyder, Luke Baine for Fernandina, Kason Kelly for Forrest, Michael Hutchinson for Paxon, Timothy Worthen for Yulee and probably Tyler Beverly for West Nassau. Based on what I see here, I would tab Radomski as the favorite to win the district. He goes a little unnoticed with some of the star power the Cardinals have up top, but (at least until Guillory came on board) he’s been the catalyst for what usually turns into a run of Bishop Snyder victories. His competition level is the highest in the weight class. I think Kish has probably separated himself from the rest of the group for consideration as a finalist, but I’m bothered that I didn’t see him at Ed White last week. Should be a good fight for two spots between Beverly, Worthen and Kelly, all of whom have shown some good things.
145: I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Andrew Sheffield for Andrew Jackson (unless he slots in at 52), Johnny Ruise for Baker County, Kody Kellum for Bishop Snyder, Josh Helm for Fernandina Beach, Dushaun Manning of Forrest, Connor Foreman for Paxon, Patrick Dollison for Raines. I’m less sure about who West Nassau will have (possibly John Forehand, unless he’s at 52, or maybe Aaron Thomason) or who Yulee will have (either David Shepard, Jordan Frank or Brian Winkles). Based on what I’ve seen here, Helm (ranked 13th statewide) is the solid-to-overwhelming favorite to win the district. Knock off a John Martorano, you get my attention and fast. We’ve had to wait until mid-January for Helm to appear in the lineup, but in the brief time he’s been well worth the wait. Kellum is the solid favorite for the runnerup position. So tall (taller than me, and I’m a good 6-3) for a 145. Put him in the weight room and he will be a monster upper in the next two years. After that it gets a little murky due to the uncertainty for Nassau and Yulee. I’m inclined to go with Ruise as slightly ahead of the other Nassau entrants, who are a tossup for fourth. I think Forehand might also go 52.
152: I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Sheffield or Demonta Bell of Andrew Jackson, Tyler Imrich of Bishop Snyder, Thomas Monaghan of Fernandina, Brian Thomas of Forrest, Torry Williams of Paxon, Jeremiah Prince of Raines. I am less sure about Baker County (either Simon Brown, Ian Finn or Jake Koburger), West Nassau (Forehand or possibly Trevor Higginbotham) or Yulee (David Beverly, Frank or Winkles). Based on what I’ve seen here, newly-minted state 16th Monaghan is the solid favorite to win the district. Monaghan looks more comfortable the lighter he’s been, and now he has a solid training partner right next to him in Helm. It’s gonna be a really good field and competitive battles for 2-4 at this weight. Bell, Imrich, Thomas, Williams, Forehand and Beverly all have good chances to get out. The wrestlers who’ve been part-time are going to find themselves struggling in this field, because there are no easy outs. Even Prince and Brown have won several matches.
160: I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Bell or Tracy Russell from Andrew Jackson, Tristen Bartron from Baker County, Matt Tate or Nathaniel Cleland of Bishop Snyder, Matthew Schuyler from Fernandina, Dominique Williams from Forrest, Anthony Dukes from Paxon, Sha-Mel Franks from Raines, Michael Dudzinski from West Nassau and Dillion Gadoury from Yulee. Based on what I’ve seen here, the solid-to-overwhelming favorite is Dudzinski (9th statewide) to win the district. He has only one loss this year, and that was to a 2A wrestler. He’s beaten a fellow #1 and fellow solid favorite in this tournament. Almost no one worked harder this off-season, and he’s reaping the rewards now. Another solid field should go to region from this weight class, highlighted by Cleland (if he’s here and not 170), Dukes and either Bell or Russell, whoever is at 160. Williams has had a good Gateway season and Bartron could surprise as well.
170: I have not seen a recent 170 from West Nassau. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Russell from Andrew Jackson (unless at 160, in which case Jackson will be open here), Anthony Johnson of Baker County, Tate or Cleland from Snyder, Jackson Crews from Fernandina, Isaiah Golson from Forrest, Tyrann Baxter from Raines and either RJ Adams or Cecil Winebarger from Yulee. Paxon may also send up Hudson Sadler at this weight. Based on what I’ve seen here, I have to make another conditional pick: If Cleland is at 170, he’s the favorite to win the district. If he’s at 160, then look for an interesting fight to play out between Golson and Adams. I’ve seen Golson, I haven’t seen Adams this year. They’ll both make it out either way. I lean toward Tate over Crews for the fourth spot…UNLESS Fernandina slots Kelsey Greathouse all the way down here at 170. He did pin Winebarger recently. If he’s here, rearrange everything to put Greathouse at the top and slot everyone down accordingly.
182: I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Kenyon Johnson from Andrew Jackson, Sean Mulkey from Baker County, Brandon Marshall from Bishop Snyder, Greathouse or Crews from Fernandina, DeAngelo Hunt from Forrest, Jeremy Sinclair from Paxon, Jermaine Oliver from Raines, Zach Morgan from West Nassau and Anthony Chiauzzi from Yulee. Based on what I’ve seen here, the solid favorite has to be Marshall in a weight class that, if Greathouse is here, is worth the price of admission by itself. Marshall has just the one loss the very first weekend of the season (to Dudzinski, who bumped up from his then-weight of 170 to face him). Marshall (last local ranking #1, 2nd statewide) can beat you a lot of different ways, and the ones that he hasn’t thought up, Oliver (#2 locally, fifth statewide) just might have tried. That is such a contrast in every way, Marshall’s technical precision versus Oliver’s freakish athleticism. Played straight, Greathouse is the 3 here, with Mulkey the definite 4 by a little ways over either Hunt or Johnson. Should Greathouse drop to 70, that moves Mulkey up and a fight between Hunt and Johnson. They didn’t meet at Gateway, but Hunt majored Englewood’s Ashton Harris, who decisioned Johnson.
195: With Greathouse down at least one weight, I have not seen a 195 from Fernandina of late. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Rashad McClain of Andrew Jackson, James Carter of Baker County, Nathan Morales of Bishop Snyder, Malik Brown of Forrest, Elijah Mitchell-McGraw of Paxon, Malcolm Kirtsey of Raines, Seth Petty of West Nassau and Gino Carollo of Yulee. Based on what I’ve seen here, Morales is the slight favorite to win the district. He’s consistently good, rarely beats himself and quietly gets the job done for the Cardinals. He has not faced Carter, who I am thinking will be the other finalist – Carter won in a fight up at 220 that weekend – but it should be a closely-matched title competition. I think 3 and 4 is a three-person race between McClain, the Gateway Conference runnerup, Brown and Petty.
220: I have not seen a 220 for Andrew Jackson, Fernandina Beach (since very early in November) or Raines. I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Lenny Carter of Baker County, Nicholas Cleland of Bishop Snyder, Dexter Nickles of Forrest, Jordan Smith of Paxon, Bradley Sikes of West Nassau and Duna Polard of Yulee. Based on what I’ve seen, the pick is Carter as the favorite to win the district. Like the larger Helm at Fernandina, the larger Carter has only been in the lineup a short time. Other than a quick pin at the hands of Orange Park uber-220 Devon Brooks, Carter has drilled all opposition. Cleland (15th statewide) isn’t susceptible to drilling, but he lost to James Carter, 10-7, during the regular season. Lenny Carter looks like he has even more aggression on the mat. Big gap between Carter and Cleland and the rest of the field, Sikes is probably the best of the rest and my choice for third, with a lean toward Polard as the fourth.
285: I have a pretty good idea that the following wrestlers will go: Travaris Shanks of Andrew Jackson, Collyn Green of Baker County, Christian DeLosSantos of Bishop Snyder, Austin Turpin of Fernandina, Kahlil Welsh of Forrest, Julian Leandre of Paxon, Lawrence Jones of Raines and Bradley Kite of Yulee. I’m less sure of West Nassau, who could send out either Jackson Moyle or Matthew Forsythe. Based on what I’ve seen here, Welsh (15th statewide) is the solid favorite to win the district. And it’s a pretty solid field, as Green, DeLosSantos and Moyle (if he goes) all have had decent-to-good seasons and would do well at regions next week. Welsh has a rare combination of size and athleticism, though, that will be very difficult to counter this weekend. Look at DeLosSantos as a fellow finalist, with Green and Moyle (if he goes here) the likeliest 3-4 prospects.